ag land with highway in between

Modeling the integration of land-based carbon into California’s cap-and-trade market

About

California’s carbon cap-and-trade program is one of the largest multi-sectoral emissions trading systems in the world. The program operates by setting an annually decreasing cap on emissions, which incentivizes polluters to cut emissions to stay under the limit. Introduced in 2012, this market-based approach serves as a critical component in the state's strategy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. However, while the cap covers roughly 85% of the state’s total emissions, it alone is not enough to meet California’s climate targets. Additional strategies are needed to address the remaining 15% of emissions and ensure the state stays on track to meet its ambitious climate goals.

Tightening the cap is one way to accelerate emissions reductions. This means expanding the existing cap-and-trade program to include other sources of emissions like those from Natural and Working Lands (NWL). Because NWL includes agriculture and forests, integrating land-based carbon into California's cap-and-trade program may help mitigate carbon emissions at a significantly lower cost. It may also generate significant environmental and social co-benefits such as biodiversity, water quality, and reduced heat. Working closely with The Nature Conservancy, this project seeks to understand how we can leverage recent advancements in carbon measurement and improved understanding of ecosystem processes and market design to provide new and compelling motivations to include the land based emissions into California's cap-and-trade program. 

Approach

To better understand the potential tradeoffs and opportunities associated with integrating NWL into California’s cap-and-trade program, our team is building a model to assess various policy scenarios and forecast potential outcomes under different market conditions. Using publicly available data on carbon sources, we are parameterizing the model so that we can evaluate the economic, environmental, and social impacts of different policy options. To ensure this effort aligns with current policy discussions and emerging initiatives, we are also incorporating input from policymakers and stakeholders. Ultimately, this project will guide efforts to expand the cap-and-trade program to include NWL, helping California achieve its ambitious climate goals while delivering broader environmental and social benefits. 

Partners

This project is a collaboration with Spencer Banzhaf from North Carolina State University and The Nature Conservancy.