Executing an economic assessment of land-based strategies to mitigate climate change in California

About

The State of California is committed to ambitious targets for future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. There are a variety of strategies and paths that could be used to meet these targets - one of interest to the State being land-based strategies. Land-based climate change interventions leverage the natural sequestration capacity of the land and focus on reducing emissions from various land use activities. Our team completed an economic assessment of a suite of land-based strategies to identify those that can achieve cost-effective emissions reductions while also generating non carbon environmental benefits.

Approach

emLab researchers and partners conducted an economic assessment of alternative interventions including: (1) avoided conversion of natural lands to cropland and urban uses, (2) restoration of woodlands and riparian areas, and (3) fuels management to reduce wildfire severity. We quantified the costs of these interventions, the associated offsets of greenhouse gases, and the additional benefits such as avoided costs of wildfire suppression and avoided flood damages. We completed this work at two scales: a focused study on Merced County, CA and a broader statewide analysis. 

Using a dynamic, spatially-explicit model that tracks changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on carbon storage and flux, we introduced interventions that modify land use and land management and analyze their effects on carbon storage and other biophysical changes on the landscape. Each intervention was evaluated in terms of opportunity costs (e.g., value of foregone commodity production) and additional benefits generated. 

Key Findings

The natural climate solutions that were evaluated all demonstrated potential to increase sequestration or avoid emissions in California, relative to a future without such interventions. In addition to climate benefits, conservation and restoration interventions were also found to provide economic benefits as well, in terms of avoided costs due to climate-related damages.

Partners

This project was completed in partnership with Dr. Erik Nelson at Bowdoin College and The Nature Conservancy with support from Next10.