Forecasting the future of global fisheries under climate change

About

Alongside the rising ocean temperatures associated with climate change, we expect to see significant changes in the productivity of global fisheries in the near future, as well as major shifts in species’ current geographic ranges. Both of these climate change impacts will have serious implications for the stability and well-being of communities around the world that rely on the presence of healthy and stable fish stocks for their livelihoods and food supply. 

In anticipation of these impacts, we investigated the potential for adaptive fisheries management techniques to address the expected consequences of changes in species productivity and distribution due to climate change. 

Approach

Leveraging estimates of a fishery’s status and level of exploitation, as well as data on the species’ distribution to forecast responses to climate change, we projected future biomass, harvest, and profits for 915 single- and mixed-species stocks across the globe under a range of climate projections and management scenarios, which range from no adaptation to full adaptation to anticipated range shifts and changes in productivity. 

Key Findings

The results of our study suggest that fully adaptive management can result in greater global biomass, harvest, and profit compared to what is achieved today under a moderate warming scenario. Importantly, we find that benefits in biomass, harvest, and profit are only possible when management addresses both productivity changes and range shifts due to climate change, and when temperatures do not rise by more than 2 degrees celsius. This highlights the important role of greenhouse gas mitigation in addition to improved management for the future of fisheries.

Partners

This project was a collaboration with researchers from Hokkaido University, the Environmental Defense Fund, and National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis.