Toward sustainable and climate-resilient fisheries management for the South Pacific Humboldt squid fishery

About

The Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas) is one of the most important distant water fisheries globally, playing a crucial role in both the economy and food security. These extraordinarily large squid are particularly sensitive to environmental changes, including fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST), driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, that climate change increasingly intensifies. SST plays a pivotal role in determining where squid populations thrive, influencing their migration patterns and spawning grounds. As these temperatures shift, so do the squid, leading to changes in fishing grounds and market demand. Understanding these dynamics is essential for sustainable fisheries management in an era of rapid climate change.

Approach

The study investigated the sensitivity of this fishery to climate change, with a particular focus on the implications for policy interventions. The goal was to provide policymakers with the necessary data and insights to make informed, sustainable management decisions. The study addressed the following research questions:

• How do fluctuations in SST influence the distribution and abundance of Humboldt squid?
• What are the subsequent shifts in fishing demand and potential conflicts among fisheries?
• What specific challenges and opportunities for management enhancement exist in light of changing SST?
• What policy recommendations and fisheries management strategies can be developed to manage Humboldt squid fisheries sustainably in the context of climate change?
• How can the relevant Regional Fisheries Management Organizations, distant water fishing fleets, and adjacent countries collectively contribute to the sustainable management of the Humboldt squid in the context of climate change?  

This project took place in three phases that combined ecological modeling with policy analysis. We began by reviewing scientific and socioeconomic literature to understand the biological sensitivity of Humboldt squid to SST changes and the fisheries economic significance. Next, we developed a data-driven fishery model to simulate future SST scenarios and predict Humboldt squid responses. This model integrated historical and current data from Global Fishing Watch and South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organization (SPRFMO), as well as bioeconomic parameters in the existing study of this fishery. We used this model to analyze the migration patterns of these squid in response to changing SST to predict shifts in fishing demand and the potential for conflict among fisheries. Finally, we assessed various fisheries management strategies specific to individual countries and regions, such as voluntary seasonal closures and enforced fishing moratoriums, to identify their effectiveness in addressing the challenges posed by climate change and overfishing.

Key findings

• Rising SSTs have mixed and overall adverse impacts on fishing effort distribution for the Humboldt squid fishery, with distinct spatial and seasonal dynamics. Climate change is projected to reduce fishing effort in historically-fished squid grounds near Peru and Chile, particularly offshore areas, while modest increases in fishing effort are expected in pockets of equatorial regions where SST is actually expected to decrease. Seasonal shifts indicate decreased fishing effort during spring and summer, with potential increases in fall and winter. 
• Climate change is unlikely to expand fishing into previously un-fished areas but will significantly reduce fishery opportunities and suitability in historically productive fishing grounds. We expect this effort reduction impact will be particularly severe in the inshore areas of Chile and Peru, where climate change forecasts predict heating hotspots. This underscores the need for targeted interventions to protect artisanal fisheries, which are highly vulnerable to environmental changes.
• Current management practices lack coordinated regional efforts between Chile, Peru, and high-seas fleets operating under the SPRFMO. Limited data sharing, as well as inadequate regional total allowable catch frameworks, hinders the development of effective conservation strategies. Enhanced regional collaboration is critical to address transboundary stock challenges and ensure sustainability.
• Adaptive management strategies, such as dynamic fishing moratoria and real-time environmental monitoring systems tied to climate indices, are necessary to manage squid stocks for climate resilience. Early warning systems, coupled with regional precautionary catch limits, can provide proactive responses to climate-induced habitat shifts and protect both ecological and economic interests.

Partners

This project was a collaboration with the Environmental Defense Fund.

Photo credit: CALChux