power lines at sunset

The unequal burden of climate change in California

About

Climate change is a global and gradual process, but its impacts manifest locally in the form of community-level extreme heat, drought, flood, and other natural disaster events. Energy-based heating and cooling services are some of the most critical components of adaptation to these extreme weather events, as it enables households to insulate themselves from adverse weather events. But increased energy consumption results in costly energy bills which potentially pose a financial burden to low-income households. As the state of California seeks to develop equity-centered climate policy under the 2022 Scoping Plan for Achieving Carbon Neutrality, policymakers need local-level information about the burden of energy-based adaptation costs to form evidence-based investments and regulatory responses that prioritize the most vulnerable.This project quantifies the changing energy burden from climate-driven impacts across California communities and examines how these costs fall unequally across demographic, racial, and economic groups. 


The project is a part of our continued collaboration with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in developing a Climate Vulnerability Metric (CVM), which quantifies the community-level impacts of climate change across California at the census tract level for four key categories of climate damages: mortality, energy, labor supply, and flooding.

Approach

The initial CVM, released in 2022, computed financial burdens of energy-based adaptation to climate change by combining econometric results on electricity and natural gas demand responses to weather, derived from Auffhammer (2022), with state-level average utility prices. However, the approach ignored large price differences across California’s utilities, which makes it challenging to get a full picture differential vulnerability. We are building on the initial CVM by:

  1. Improving the accuracy of household energy (electricity and natural gas) expenditure estimates under climate change by incorporating improved data sources to account for census tract level price differentiation. 
  2. Identifying who faces the largest energy expenditure burden from climate change by assessing projected expenditures on energy services due to climate change within the following categories: race/ethnicity; educational attainment; income and poverty levels; urban vs. rural residents; and SB 535 Disadvantaged Communities.
  3. Identifying places facing large “adaptation gaps” due to limited energy access. This will help identify communities where climate risks are high but where energy expenditures are not projected to rise substantially. These households face climate damages that will require external support to adapt to, making them prime locations for targeted justice-focused climate policy interventions. 

Partners

This project is a collaboration with UC Berkeley and funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.